Brexit - 6 key pieces of research

Key research into a potential Brexit
Key research into a potential Brexit
  1. According to a recent ONS report the UK is exporting more than ever to non-EU countries: figures show UK exports outside the EU are growing at an annual clip of 6.5 per cent. Meanwhile, exports to the EU are still growing at a healthy 3.4 per cent and accounted for 44.6 per cent of total exports.
  2. A poll by Ipsos Mori finds that if a referendum were held now, 61 per cent of people would vote to stay in the EU – the highest figure in 24 years – while 27 per cent would leave the EU.
  3. A study by think-tank Open Europe found the worst case Brexit scenario is that the UK economy loses 2.2 per cent of its total GDP by 2030. However, it says GDP could rise by 1.6 per cent if the UK could negotiate a free trade deal with Europe and pursued "very ambitious deregulation".
  4. Research conducted by German firm Bertelsmann Stiftung and IFO Institute has estimated that a Brexit could cost the UK £215 billion, or 14 per cent of UK GDP. The German study assesses three scenarios and what their likely effect would be in the year 2030, when it believes the negative effects will have shown their full effect. Aart De Geus, chairman and CEO of Bertelsmann Stiftung said: “A Brexit is a losing game for everyone in Europe from an economic perspective alone – particularly for the UK.”
  5. ‘Change or Go’, a report from Business for Britain, the Eurosceptic business leaders forum, finds that if the UK were to leave an unreformed EU, the average British household would save up to £933 a year, with the biggest savings coming from lower food prices.
  6. A report by the CBI estimates the economic benefit of the UK being in the single market is worth £3,000 per household each year.