If Britain was to leave the EU, the UK could expect a loss of at least 500,000 jobs, a 3.6% fall in the GDP and a year-long recession. These are the stark findings from the latest analysis from the Treasury.
This analysis shows that such a decision would cause an immediate and profound economic shock across the country, creating instability and uncertainty which would be made worse by the complex negotiations that would follow to agree the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU and its new relationship with the rest of Europe.
Echoing the recent warnings from the independent Bank of England and the International Monetary Fund, the central conclusion of the Treasury’s new analysis is that the effect of this profound shock would be to push the UK into recession and lead to a sharp rise in unemployment.
Prime Minister David Cameron said: “This analysis shows the stark choice facing the British people. Even in its more cautious estimate, the Treasury finds that a vote to leave the EU would cause an economic shock that would tip Britain into recession and cost at least half a million jobs. The pound would fall, prices in the shops would rise, and the housing market would be damaged.
“On 23 June, people face a stark choice: economic security and a vote to Remain, or a leap in the dark which would cost jobs and raise prices.”